Summary Threat Type Vulnerabilities Surface Matrix Motivations Kill Chain Recommendations Appendix
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Deepfake Jim Harbaugh Press Conference, "Admitting to Cheating"

Submitted File

On October 5, 2023, a video circulated across social media platforms depicting former Michigan University head football coach (and current Los Angeles Chargers head coach) Jim Harbaugh, appearing at a Michigan University press conference. While standing in front of the microphone, the deepfake Harbaugh states: "Thank you everyone from coming and allowing for me to address this. The rumors are true--we had been scouting some other teams, but how was I supposed to know that was illegal? We Michigan men do anything we can to get ahead, even if it may seem dirty. I'd like to remind you all that despite recent minor success, I'm still 1-6 in bowl games and 2-5 against the Ohio State University. I'm just doing what I can do drag this sorry program out of the mud."

Threat Level

Low

Moderate

Elevated

High


Authenticity Spectrum

Real

Suspicious

Likely Fake

Fake



Deepfake Attack Profile

Credibility

Moderate

The more synthetic media is perceived to be legitimate and authoritative, the content is more likely to be trusted, persuasive, and acted upon.

Interactivity

Low

Synthetic media can range from non-interactive, not ongoing, or not consistent (low) to interactive, ongoing, and consistent (high).

Familiarity

Moderate

Synthetic media can range from very recognizable and familiar (high) or hardly (or not) recognizable and familiar (low).

Evocation

Moderate

Synthetic media can range from evoking a significant affective response (high) to barely or not at all eliciting an affective reaction.

Distribution

Broadcast

Synthetic media can range from broadcast to a wide human audience or technical security measures (high) to a narrow, specific human audience or tailored technical security measure (low).


Deepfake & Synthetic Media Analysis Framework (DSMAF) Assessment™. The media submitted for this Deepfake Threat Intelligence Report (DTIR) was assessed with the Psyber Labs Deepfake & Synthetic Media Analysis Framework (DSMAF)™, a set of psychological, sociological and affective influence factors and sub-facets, that when holistically applied, inform the motivations, intentions, and targeting process in synthetic media and deepfake propagation. The findings of each DSMAF factor is described in respective sections and graphically plotted on the Deepfake Risk Factor Radar. The combined DSMAF findings are given a Synthetic Media Threat Level (Low, Medium, Elevated, or High) for actionable awareness and risk mitigation.

Threat Type

Threat Type is the category of intended purpose and the risk proposed by the synthetic media or deepfake. Often, cyber deception efforts through deepfake content are multi-purpose, and a result, are categorized with multiple threat types.

This deepfake encompasses a number of rule violation allegations and brand damage facets.

Deception

Intentional strategy and tactics meant to mislead, misdirect and manipulate the perceptions of a target audience through simulation (showing the false) and/or dissimulation (hiding the real)

Sports Integrity Attack ("Cheating")

Allegations of behavior that undermines the fundamental principles of fairness, ethics, and honesty in sports

Brand Damage

Negative impact on a company's reputation, credibility, and overall brand value that can result from perceived events, actions, or information that lead consumers and the public to form unfavorable perceptions of the brand.

Fake Press Conference

Synthetic media used to create the appearance that an individual(s) has participated in a press conference and behaved or spoken problematically

Brand Reputation Attack

Synthetic media or deception narratives meant to cause a decline in the public perception of a brand caused by negative events or actions associated with that brand. This damage can affect how customers, investors, and the broader market view the company, potentially leading to a decrease in consumer trust, loss of sales, difficulties in recruitment, and a drop in share value

Sports- Ethical Violation Attack

Synthetic media or deception narrative that alleges an act or behavior in the sports domain that contradicts the established ethical norms and principles that govern fair and respectful competition. These violations can range from individual misconduct by athletes to systemic issues within sports organizations and affect the integrity of sports as a whole.

Common Cognitive Vulnerabilities & Exposures™ (CCVE)

Common Cognitive Vulnerabilities & Exploits (CCVEs) are perceptual distortions, cognitive biases, heuristics misapplied, or any mental process that exposes a person to a potential manipulation by an adversary.

Confirmation Bias

Category: Cognitive Processing

The tendency to seek information that confirms or supports a predetermined position or conclusion.

Devil Effect

Category: Interpersonal Biases

In assessing other people, it is the tendency for a person’s undesirable trait to be generalized to possess other poor traits.

Disgruntlement

Category: Other Psychological Vulnerabilities

A feeling of dissatisfaction with one’s situation or circumstances. May be leveraged by an attacker by offering a path toward resolving the source disgruntlement as a means of manipulating the target.

Emotional Load

Category: Other Psychological Vulnerabilities

Affective responses--emotions, moods and feelings--effect cognition and perception. Media that intentionally causes a high degree of emotional load can significantly image how target audience member perceives and thinks about the subject of the media.


Deepfake Attack Surface & Vectors

As part of the DSMAF criteria, Deepfake Attack Surface & Vectors assesses the intended target; the manner of control, or how the synthetic media is being presented to the target; and medium, or the type of synthetic media being presented to the intended target.


Intended Target

Both humans and automation may be targeted by synthetic media attacks. This criteria references whether the target of the attack was human or automation. The highlighted icon represents the intended target of this submitted media.


Human

Technical

Hybrid

Unknown



Control

A measure of if the attack was constructed by a human or by artificial intelligence. The highlighted icon represents the method of control of this submitted media.


Human

Automation

Hybrid

Unknown



Medium

The medium is the format of the content submitted. Highlighted items represent all of the various formats contained in the submitted content.


Text

Image

Video

Audio

Synthetic Media Exploitation Matrix

The Synthetic Media Exploitation Matrix Is a visual representation of the combined levels of attacker sophistication and maliciousness.

  • Sophistication is a judgment of the level of demonstrated technological prowess and capability involved in the attack.
  • Maliciousness is a conclusion regarding the degree to which the attack was deliberately intended to cause harm.

Sophistication

Moderate

Technical complexity of the atttack.

Sophistication
Maliciousness

Chart Not Available on Printed Version

Maliciousness

High

How damaging the attack was intended to be.



Motivations

Motivations are the underlying activators, purposes or sustained reasons for why the deepfake threat actor sought to create and take the necessary steps to produce and disseminate synthetic media or deepfake content.

The deepfake video was created to serve a number of motivations, ranging from brand damage to trolling.

Provocation

Instigating, eliciting or forcing the target audience to take and action that is advantageous to the deepfake threat adversary

Entertainment

Creating synthetic media for fun or to create enjoyment for themselves or others, often through embarrassment or playful, non-destructive controversy

Perception Management

Perception management is the deliberate effort to influence and control the perception of a target audience through strategic use of information, communication, and other practices to shape the way something is observed and interpreted.

Reputation Damage

The use of synthetic media and/or deception narratives to cause the deterioration of the public image of an individual, organization, or brand. This damage can result from the fabrication of various events, behaviors, or information that negatively influences how the affected entity is perceived by others.

The Deepfake Kill Chain™

The Deepfake Kill Chain™ describes the various, distinct, sequential stages of deepfake media creation and dissemination. Understanding these stages, and the adversary’s efficacy in the respective stages not only reveals the adversary’s modus operandi and decision-making process, but when contrasted with the Deepfake & Synthetic Media Analysis Framework™, identifies and elucidates methods of preventing and defending against the adversary’s deepfake attacks.

Motivation

Motivation is the underlying activator, purpose or sustained reasons for why the deepfake threat actor wants to create nefarious synthetic media.

The creation of this deepfake had mixed motivation, to generate humor, particularly to football fans that do not like Michigan University, and to expressly or implicitly cause brand damage by suggesting that Harbaugh cheated to gain advantage in football games

Targeting

Targeting is the threat actor’s intentional selection of a target audience, or the group or individual whom he is interested in impacting with his deepfake campaign.

The target audience are those familiar with college football and the teams who are rivals of Michigan University

Research and Reconnaissance

Research & Reconnaissance occurs when the threat actor is effortfully gathering information about the target audience, the optimal channels to conduct their campaign on, the relevant narratives for the attack, and type of content that will have the desired impact on the target audience.

No case specific insights generated.

Preparation and Planning

Preparation & Planning are the steps and processes that the threat actor takes to acquire the tools and content needed to create the deepfake media for their campaign and their deliberation for the execution of the campaign.

Gathering of content where Coach Harbaugh has held pos-game press conferences

Production

Production is the threat actor’s use of tools and content for the creation and development of deepfake media for their attack campaign.

Moderate production value with cadence and affect of the voice being unusal

Narrative Testing

Narrative Testing. A narrative is a story, or an account of related events or experiences. A good narrative will have story coherence, such that both the story being told and its relationship to the real world are cohesive and clear. In deepfake campaigns, threat actors consider and evaluate the possible narratives—particularly in relation to events and context—to support the campaign in an effort to maximize the believability and efficacy of the attack.

The deepfake was created and deployed to create a narrative that Coach Harbaugh not only cheated, but knowingly cheated against multiple teams.

Deployment

Deployment is the threat actor’s intentional transmission of deepfake content to the target audience through selected online channels.

Multiple social media channels

Amplification

Amplification is the threat actor’s intentional efforts to maximize the visibility, virality and target audience exposure to their deepfake content.

The video quickly became wildly spread as a result of bing viewed and shared hundreds of thousands of time.

Post-Campaign

Post-Campaign is the period after the target audience has received and been exposed to the deepfake content.

No case specific insights generated.



Cognitive Security Recommendations

This section identifies the steps and measures to prevent and defend against the synthetic media/deepfake content assessed in this DTIR. For a more detailed recommendation, training or consultation, connect with Psyber Labs.


Psyber Labs suggests before coming to a conclusion about the content conveyed in the video, ask oneself: Why would Coach Harbaugh admit in a highly viewed post-game press conference to cheating, and violating ethical standards? Is this video in context, cadence and structure as other Jim Harbaugh interviews? Counter-messaging, to include this DTIR on the social media channels that have distributed this deepfake is a way to use science-based analysis inform sketical audiences.

Appendix

DTIR™ Version: 1.0

Submission Date (UTC): April 17, 2024 12:50

Assessment Date (UTC): April 18, 2024 13:52

SHA256 Hash: a5fe1fe20f521f695dda6b4cc0001535bc2888fc20dff0444717045432e35728

Source: https://www.instagram.com/ustadium/reel/Cy1Xk6SIX5F/?hl=en

Source: https://twitter.com/jasrifootball/status/1717267060605034499?lang=en